v2.2 · Panel-based MRD detection

Ultra-sensitive multi-cancer detection
from cell-free DNA.

Open-source. Reproducible. Public data only.

5-seed all metrics
627 cross-study samples
256 tests, all passing
100% public data

Quickstart

Five lines to a panel-based MRD score on real TCGA tumor mutations.

git clone https://github.com/rollroyces/deepcatch.git
cd deepcatch && python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -e .
pytest -q                     # 256 tests, all pass
python scripts/real_tcga_validation.py --report

Validated end-to-end on real TCGA-LUAD mutations (GDC, open access) and FLARE/GSE317007 real cfDNA.

Two complementary channels

DeepCatch ships two detection channels that are individually useful and even better together:

Mutation-informed (this repo)

Per-locus Poisson LLR aggregation across tumor-suppressor panel. Best at MRD-style ultra-low VAF (≤0.1%). Trained on real TCGA-LUAD mutations with a context-aware sequencing error model.

AUC 0.921 at 0.1% ctDNA on 20 TCGA-LUAD patients.

Tumor-naive fragmentomics

5-mer end motifs + fragment size distribution + DELFI/WPS coverage profiles. No tumor mutations required. Best at pan-cancer screening.

AUC 0.978 ± 0.002 on 627 cross-study samples from FinaleDB.

Fusion (naive average)

Two channels averaged. AUC 0.9886 — paired t-test vs each alone p < 0.0001, DeLong p < 0.0015 on every seed. The two channels are complementary.

Per-sample risk score

Standalone cfdna-score CLI scores any sample against the trained model in <1 s with cache hit. SCORE_USAGE.md →

Tissue-of-origin

6-class TOO from fragmentomics alone: macro AUC 0.9533 (full), 0.9338 within-Cristiano (batch-effect removed). Top-1 79.4%, top-2 90.7%.

Methylation channel (separate repo)

CpG methylation channel being developed in deepcatch-methylation. Phase 0 + Phase 1 complete; FinaleMe pretrained HMM decoder working (per-CpG β-values on BH01 chr22).

Honest validation

Every result on this page is 5-seed mean ± std with bootstrap 95% CI. No single-seed AUC is reported anywhere in the repo.

CohortSamplesTaskAUC (mean ± std)
FinaleDB pan-cancer (Jiang 2015 + Cristiano 2019)627Cancer vs healthy0.978 ± 0.002
Mutation × tumor-naive fusion (same 627)627Channel fusion0.989 ± 0.001
Tumor-naive fragmentomics + synthetic mutation (5-channel)545Cross-channel0.9921 pooled
TCGA-LUAD panel LLR @ 0.1% ctDNA20 patientsUltra-low VAF0.921 (Sens@95% = 0.770)
Multi-cancer 5-class OvR (LR+PCA(200))236 cancerCancer subtyping0.970 ± 0.001 macro
Tissue-of-origin (within-Cristiano, 5-class)336 cancerTissue origin0.934 ± 0.002 macro
FLARE/GSE317007 (ONT real cfDNA)12 HNSCCCross-platformReproduces CG-depletion signature

Headline comparisons vs published MCED tests at sens@99% specificity:

TestCohortCancersSens @ 99% spec
Galleri (CCGA-3, methylation-based)4,02350+51.5% @ 99.5%
CancerSEEK (8-cancer)1,0058~70% @ ~99%
This — fragmentomics alone627875.5% (CI 63.3–87.6)
This — fragmentomics + fusion627884.3% (CI 80.0–92.9)

See RESULTS.md for full per-cohort breakdown, ablations, and known limitations.

Paper & preprints

bioRxiv manuscript (in preparation)

Markdown source: paper/PAPER.md

LaTeX source: paper/paper.tex

Pre-compiled PDF: paper/biorxiv_submission_v2.2.0.pdf

Author: Yu Ching Lam · ORCID 0009-0008-9113-769X · Independent Researcher, Hong Kong.

Companion: fragmentomics pipeline

Standalone fragmentomics-only paper draft at deepcatch-methylation/BIORXIV_PAPER_FRAGMENTOMICS.md

Covers the 4 enhancements: multi-cancer, sens@spec, per-sample CLI, tissue-of-origin.

Reviewer pack

REVIEWERS.md — what we built, what we want feedback on, contact info.

AUDIT_REPORT.md — independent review notes.

MODEL.md — model card (intended use, limitations, ethics).

Why this exists

I'm Yu Ching Lam, an independent researcher in Hong Kong. No institution. No lab. No academic email.

What I have: open data, ORCID, GitHub, and time.

DeepCatch is built on public data only — TCGA GDC, FinaleDB, GEO, Zenodo. Every result in the repo is reproducible from open data with the provided scripts. No paywalled supplements, no institutional access required.

If this work is useful, a GitHub star helps reach more reviewers. Sponsorship funds compute and storage.

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